It seems pretty clear that the drumbeats of war are looming in the Middle East. Strangely, the mainstream media seem to be ignoring it, and the financial markets act unaware.
That can only mean one thing. Get ready.
For starters, should war break out, it will likely be a major Black Swan event. Obviously, economies and financial markets hate Black Swans. That means more volatility to follow.
So, what’s happening in the Middle East that’s got me so worried?
Shadow War
Currently, there is a shadow war going on between Israel and Iran. A lot of things are happening beneath the surface, especially in the espionage realm. Some incidents were reported but received less attention than they should given the gravity of the situation.
Weekly Military Actions in Syria
For quite a long while, Israel and Iran have been conducting shadow operations against each other. Every week, I hear about Israeli air and missile strikes in Syria against Iranian interests. That in itself is quite extraordinary. One recently hit the civilian airport in Damascus, it made the news.
Normally, when a nation’s military violates the airspace of another and conducts strikes, it is as good as declaring war. If frantic diplomatic efforts are not carried out successfully, a broader shooting war will follow. That this isn’t driving major headlines is worrisome.
Consider what happens near Taiwan. Whenever the Chinese air-force nears the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) of Taiwan, the media screams about it. China does not have to violate the actual airspace of Taiwan for reporters to fret impending war.
Yet Israel’s weekly violation of Syrian airspace to conduct military airstrikes results in actual combat deaths. But you hardly hear any mention of it.
Cyberwar
There have been more than rumors and speculation of an active cyberwar between the two nations for quite a long while. As the New York Times recently reported,
Millions of ordinary people in Iran and Israel recently found themselves caught in the crossfire of a cyberwar between their countries. In Tehran, a dentist drove around for hours in search of gasoline, waiting in long lines at four gas stations only to come away empty.
In Tel Aviv, a well-known broadcaster panicked as the intimate details of his sex life, and those of hundreds of thousands of others stolen from an L.G.B.T.Q. dating site, were uploaded on social media.
For years, Israel and Iran have engaged in a covert war, by land, sea, air and computer, but the targets have usually been military or government related. Now, the cyberwar has widened to target civilians on a large scale.
Recently, as the Jerusalem Post reported, false rocket warning sirens were activated in Jerusalem and Eilat on June 19 and suspicion fell on Iranian hackers.
Assassinations and Sabotage in Iran
In May, an Iranian colonel was assassinated on Iranian soil. This is not the first assassination allegedly conducted by Israel. The rumors and speculation of assassinations across Iran are spreading. For example, this poster was found in Iran:
Also, a drone strike by an unknown perpetrator took place in Iran. As the New York Times reported,
A drone strike this week targeted a highly sensitive military site outside Tehran where Iran develops missile, nuclear and drone technology, according to three Iranians with knowledge of the attack and an U.S. official.
The strike on Wednesday evening hit the site of the Parchin military complex, about 37 miles southeast of the capital, with quadcopter suicide drones, according to the Iranian sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly. The drones exploded into a building used by the Ministry of Defense for research on drone development, killing a young engineer who worked at the ministry and injuring another person, they said.
Iran’s Terror Plot Against Israelis in Turkey
Recently, Israeli Mossad, in collaboration with Turkish authorities, thwarted multiple plots by Iranian Revolutionary Guard cells to kill Israeli tourists and businesspeople. As this article reported,
Israel and Turkey have already stopped several attempts by Iran-backed terrorists to attack Israelis, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday.
“The operational efforts with the Turkish security forces have borne fruit,” he said in a press briefing. “In recent days, in a joint Israeli-Turkish effort, we thwarted a number of terrorist attempts, and numerous terrorists were arrested on Turkish ground.”
Bennett said Israel and Turkey were working together very closely to stop Iran’s attempt to harm Israelis and Jews. He thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his efforts.
Is an Attack Imminent?
On May 17, something significant happened. As reported by Times of Israel,
Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned on Tuesday that Iran is just a “few weeks” from accumulating sufficient fissile material for a bomb. It is also working to finish the production and installation of 1,000 advanced centrifuges enriching uranium, including at a new underground site at the Natanz nuclear facility, he said.
Then he made this startling comment:
The price for tackling the Iranian challenge on a global or regional level is higher than it was a year ago and lower than it will be in a year
In other words, I think he is saying that it is better to take major action against Iran sooner rather than later!
Exercise in Cyprus
It appears as if Israel is actively planning military strikes against its enemies, all of whom appear to be Iranian backed (if not Iran itself).
Earlier this month, Israel wrapped up a major military exercise in Cyprus. As Times of Israel reported,
The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday wrapped up a major military exercise in Cyprus, simulating a military ground offensive deep inside Lebanon in a potential war against the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group.
The Mediterranean island was chosen both for its Lebanon-like terrain — mountainous along a coastal plain — and its proximity to Israel. The drill simulated various difficulties in a ground assault, such as food, water, and ammunition supply; communication issues; and the general complications in operating in unfamiliar territory.
“The first challenge we prepared for was accumulating troops,” said Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, commander of the 98th Paratroopers Division, which led the exercise.
Winter said thousands of troops were brought in to play the Lebanese side, using boats, planes, and helicopters. “We arrived in the field with great intensity. We spread out the troops, and they began operating against key areas and significant targets we identified as being important to defeat,” he said, referring to mock enemy military sites and rocket launching grounds.
Major Air-Raid Drill in a Far Away Nation
Also, early this month, Israel practiced a wide scale strike on Iran. As this news article reported,
Dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets conducted air maneuvers over the Mediterranean Sea on Tuesday night, simulating striking Iranian nuclear facilities.
According to a statement by the Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday, the drill included “long-range flight, aerial refueling and striking distant targets.” And according to Channel 13 news, more than 100 aircraft — as well as navy submarines — participated in the drill that spanned some 10,000 kilometers.
Over 100 warplanes! That is a large strike force.
Then, this news article reported a few days ago,
In face of Iran’s continued development of a nuclear capability, the Israeli Air Force has developed a new capability to be able to fly its F-35 stealth fighter jets from Israel to the Islamic Republic without requiring mid-air refueling.
Israel Warnings
Next, as this news article reported on 13 June,
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi on Sunday warned that overwhelming force would be used in Lebanon in the next potential war with Hezbollah.
Speaking at the first National Conference on the Home Front, Kochavi detailed the IDF’s strategy for responding to an attack from the radical Shiite terrorist group.
“We will deal massive strikes in the war, but we will warn the residents and allow them to leave the areas. I say to the residents of Lebanon: I advise you to leave, not only at the beginning of the war but from the beginning of tensions and before the first shot is fired. I advise you to leave those areas because the attack force will be unimaginable – like nothing you have witnessed before,” Kochavi said.
Very sadly, in every war, civilians will be caught in the crossfire.
Will Other Nations Support Israel?
For Israel to conduct a military strike on Iran, other nations have to be involved. Israeli warplanes must fly over foreign countries and back. The question is which ones?
If Israeli warplanes fly over Jordan and Iraq. This will require U.S., Jordanian and Iraqi approval or cooperation. The Iraqi government is now controlled by Shiites, who favors Iran.
The next alternative will be over Saudi Arabia. There has been some warming of relationships between Israel and the Sunni Arab nations lately because they have a common enemy in Iran.
Possible Consequences
There are many ways for an Israeli strike on Iran to escalate into a wider regional war. For example,
- If Saudi Arabia facilitated a flyover by Israeli warplanes to strike Iran, you can expect any Iranian retaliation to include Saudi Arabia as well. Perhaps Iranian proxies in Yemen will cause serious trouble for them. Iran and their allies could target Saudi oil fields.
- In retaliation, the Iranian navy and drones may attempt to block the Straits of Hormuz, which is a strategic choke point for the global flow of oil. The U.S. Navy will have to be involved to overcome this global economic threat.
- We can expect Hezbollah in Lebanon and perhaps even Hamas in Gaza to rain rockets into Israel. The Israelis will have to conduct a ground operation in Lebanon to deal with this threat, which they had been practicing in Cyprus. Also, the Israeli civilian population will have to be prepared.
- Hezbollah may find a way to target the Israel’s new Karish gas rig, which Lebanon claims is in its territory.
Economic Fall Out: Inflation May Get Worse
Recently, Saudi Arabia offered to increase oil production to help Europe wean itself from Russian oil. If Saudi oil wells are damaged or destroyed by Iran or its allies in Yemen, additional production will likely cease.
If the Straits of Hormuz are choked, it will impact oil prices for the entire world.
Europe also signed a gas deal with Israel to reduce its dependency on Russian gas. If Hezbollah manages to damage or destroy Israel’s gas production in the Mediterranean Sea, this deal is not going to happen either.
It is a no-brainer that energy prices are going to spike if war breaks out in the Middle East, and at a time when global energy prices are already at an elevated level.
That means there will be further upward pressure on prices. Today’s daily headlines about inflation will be nothing compared to what is to come.
Gold prices may shoot up also.
Can a Major War be Avoided?
What if Iran acquires nuclear weapons? Then all bets are off. Major population centers in Israel will be threatened. If Iran attacks Saudi oil fields with a nuclear weapon, how can radioactive oil fields be repaired? It may not even be possible. That is why there is an urgency to take major action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
If Israel strikes Iran, how can it keep other nations from being dragged into a war? The best case scenario is for a swift military victory against Iran and its allies. Maybe the oil and gas fields can be spared, or if not, hopefully the damage is not catastrophic. Even in the best case scenario, it will take some time to repair the damage. Therefore, inflation will remain elevated for quite a while.
Unfortunately, all this can only mean war will revisit Middle East sooner rather than later. This is what I fear. I hope that all my fears will be unfounded.
from Peak Prosperity https://ift.tt/curifCe
