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Thursday, June 30, 2022

Inside Take: Oil Supply Shock on the Way!

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Shockingly Low Oil Supplies

I simply cannot believe the oil supply numbers I am seeing. There’s a global oil supply shock underway and as high as oil prices are, they are simply not factoring in the truly desperate supply situation in which we happen to find ourselves.

I suspect that either a) speculator-driven markets are a very bad idea for necessary commodities and b) there’s a bit of “narrative control” going on in the paper markets with various political and monetary authorities conspiring to drive down prices by dumping paper contracts into the futures markets.

Either way, the result is a big and ugly explosion later on.

Oil is simply not one of those things you can manipulate for long, unlike silver or gold.

The metals markets aren’t quite as critical as oil, so they can be monkeyed around with for longer without anything terrible really happening. Oil, on the other hand, gets used up faster at a lower price and when/if it hits a certain critical level, we’ll see extraordinary price spikes as a consequence.

Of course, oil IS the economy. So, any price spikes are really just another way of saying “shortages” which is another way of saying “there will be less economic activity.” Less oil = higher prices = lower economic activity. They are related if not equivalent statements.

The chance of this all ending in a financial and economic implosion is very high. I am personally preparing with greater urgency and getting ready for what could be a long period of disruption.

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