Economic numbers this week:
First, consumer sentiment (UMCSENT). It looks pretty awful – lowest sentiment levels since 2012. Moves like this don’t happen very often, and they precede market “corrections.” Unlike retail sales, consumer sentiment has not recovered back to pre-pandemic levels.
Second, retail sales (RSXFS); in December, it fell -2.03% m/m, which is a fairly brisk drop – 24% annualized, assuming it continues.
Third, the CPI (CPIAUCSL): in December, CPI rose +0.47%, or 5.64% annualized, and 7.12% y/y. That’s the worst since 1982. And that’s even with the hacks done to CPI in the 90s to remove the inflationary bits of the inflation metric. This successfully lowered cost-of-living adjustments for seniors on social security – thus “saving social security” – paid for by all the old people. I digress.
Fourth, 30-year mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US): over the past 3 weeks, the 30-year mortgage rate is up 40 bp, to 3.45%. That’s still pretty low, but it was a large increase in a short period of time. Armstrong tells us that money always moves in anticipation of events. In this case, I’m guessing the “event” being anticipated is that in two months, the Fed will no longer be buying MBS, and soon after that, it will start to allow the MBS to roll off its balance sheet. So, Big Money is selling MBS now. This signal tells us – the Fed isn’t kidding.
Lumber is steadily moving back up – perhaps to re-test the highs set back in May 2021. It rose +76 [+6.31%], and remains in a strong uptrend. Lumber has more than doubled in price over a 5 month period.
The buck fell -0.59% this week, and looks to be in a reasonably strong downtrend – although there was a rally on Friday. Still – on balance, money is leaving the buck right now, as it has been for a little over a month now.
Likely aided by the dollar decline, gold rose +21 [+1.17%] to 1819. Gold’s trend is mostly sideways right now, although it did manage to close back above all 3 moving averages this week, which is a positive sign. Even so – given the massive inflation, gold just isn’t getting any interest at all. Not compared with lumber and crude, certainly. How long will this continue? No idea.
And lastly – faint hints of an impending equity market correction. SPX moved down -0.30% on the week, closing below the 50 MA, which is a negative sign. However, this is not yet a general risk-off signal; other indicators are still holding up. There is also a lot of dip-buying still happening. Sector map was mixed; energy did very well, tech was flat, but discretionary and financials looked weak.
“We aren’t there just yet.”
And Now, For The News That Caught My Eye
Sinema doubles down on filibuster support, dealing likely fatal blow to Dems’ election bills
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema said Thursday that she will not vote to weaken the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold, bucking her party leaders yet again and dealing a major blow to Democrats’ election reform effort.
Both Mansion and Sinema are under incredible pressure. If she and Mansion hold, the Oligarchy’s 2022 agenda is over. I assess this as the current likely outcome. No Build Back Better, no “Voting Rights” (a Federalized voter-cheating structure), no Supreme Court packing, and the Senate filibuster rule will remain in place. That last bit is probably forward-looking, since Team Blue will be in the minority – and in desperate need of a filibuster – in about 9 months. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
Prince Andrew stripped of military affiliations by Queen Elizabeth
This comes a day after the royal’s lawyers failed to persuade a U.S. judge to dismiss a civil lawsuit that accuses him of sexual abuse.
Prince Andrew is now on an ice flow. Two Words: Princess Diana. Don’t forget to fasten your seat belt, Prince Andrew!
Fauci says Sen. Paul’s attacks ‘kindle the crazies’ who have threatened his life</
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, sparred with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., at a hearing Tuesday after Paul attacked him for appearing to disagree with scientists who said the coronavirus originated in a lab in China.
I’m guessing the number of threats have dramatically increased. I think this is an indicator of sorts. Pandemic is getting progressively less popular, the messaging is less coherent by the day (COVID-positive nurses can go back to work??!), and so is Saint Fauci the Infallible.
California Omicron Surge Expected to Peak Within Weeks</
Gov. Gavin Newsom this week noted the trend, saying, “We’re starting to see, in the last three or four days, some case leveling. That’s going to happen here in the state of California as well. … We’re going to get through this — just a few more weeks,” he said.
Bubbly optimism, from the LA Times = more evidence that the Oligarchy has decided the pandemic is over.
So – why now? Why must the pandemic be over? Well, it turns out, President “I will stop the virus” Grandpa isn’t so popular. How bad is it?
Political Instability Not U.S. Adversaries, Seen As Bigger Threat
Overall: approve 33%, disapprove 53%, net -20. Independents: approve 25%, disapprove 57%.
Those younger adults (52% disapprove) at the college bowl games – or at NASCAR races – really weren’t kidding. Most of them really don’t like “Brandon” at all. Overall, President Grandpa is currently down -20. Perhaps the young adults don’t particularly like the forced injections? I sure wouldn’t, if I were them.
Here’s a sketch of where things are headed:
- 40-year high in inflation (but its “transitory!”)
- Oil at $83/bbl. And with no pandemic, oil consumption will sharply increase.
- Lowest oil discoveries since 1946
- Retail sales are starting to fall
- Consumer sentiment is at a 9-year low
- Forced vaccination at universities, healthcare, and many workplaces. With a vaccine that – everyone will know shortly – simply doesn’t work. (Omicron!)
- The Fed is tightening. Economy will slow, long rates will increase; mortgage rates are up 40 bp in the last 3 weeks alone.
- There will likely be a US equity market correction due to low consumer sentiment + rate increases.
- President Grandpa isn’t going to get his monster money-printing package “Build Back Better”
- All those Pfizer docs are coming out before Election Day 2022.
- There is a once-in-a-generation property bubble pop in China. I expect the impact (due to hit – perhaps – in two months) will have an international effect. China is the #2 economy in the world.
And there’s an election this year, 9 months away. I hope. So, some data on how that has gone in the past:
Some Early Clues About How The Midterms Will Go
To state the obvious: A lot is at stake in November. The 2022 midterm elections will not only decide control of both the U.S. House and Senate, but also who sits behind the governor’s desk in 36 out of the nation’s 50 states.
Summary:
- Party in power almost always (90%) loses seats (n=17/19)
- Party in power, with negative approval, always loses seats (avg -20 seats) (n=7)
- Party in power, down 20 points, loses -30 to -55 seats (n=2)
Given the collection of near-calamities in progress or on the horizon, the article’s prediction of “40 seats lost” is a best-case scenario. Piling a pandemic on top of that (after all, the Bad Orange Man “lost” in 2020 due to the pandemic is just a terrible idea.
Some Team Blue members appear to have noticed:
Democratic retirements spark worry over holding House majority<
The increasing number of Democratic retirements — put against the backdrop of President Biden’s sagging approval ratings and uncertainty about redistricting — is adding to concerns the party may not be able to keep its slim majority in the House.
House Incumbents:
Retiring:
Reps: 6 [Kinzinger is on the list; Cheney is not] Dems: 18
Seeking Another Office:
Reps: 7
Dems: 8
Total:
Reps: 13
Dems: 26
Will the Oligarchy just take the L? Of course not. So, what’s the plan? Here’s my “high octane speculation”: they will replace the current administration, in the near term.
Evidence:
After declaring the pandemic is just about over, the Oligarchy/MSM is now normalizing the concept that either Gramps or Cackles could be replaced in 2024. And it looks like there is a scramble by the potential “candidates” to get selected. After all, both Gramps and Cackles are desperately unpopular. And things will almost certainly not get better, given my reading of the current economic/geopolitical tea leaves. Grandpa, after all, has utterly failed to “end the pandemic through vaccination.” And all the vaccine damage is the bomb-yet-to-drop, at least on the hypnotized 30%. Pfizer data is coming. Just like “the winter” in Game of Thrones.
But my claim is, this replacement campaign is a much more near-term prospect than 2024. If they can hang the pandemic failure (and hopefully – the vaccine disaster) on Grandpa, and then usher him off the stage, just maybe they can mitigate some of the catastrophe this November.<
So how on earth would the Oligarchy be able to ditch both Gramps and Cackles? Well, turns out, this has happened before.
Back in the early 70s, Oligarchy had to deal with an extremely unpopular war in Vietnam, and the early 70s inflation, and things were looking pretty bad. So, what did they do?
The Agnew-Nixon-Ford regime-change mechanism:
- 1973-10-10: Agnew Resigns [due to a Nixon-admin DOJ investigation!]; he pled guilty to “tax evasion”
- 1973-11-27: Ford (House Minority leader) was appointed VP by Nixon [with consent of Senate, 92-3]
- 1974-08-09: Nixon Resigns – those pesky tapes
- 1974-08-09: Ford sworn in as President
- 1974-09-08: Ford Pardons Nixon [likely the quid-pro-quo for getting Nixon to resign]
- 1974-12-19: Nelson Rockefeller (!!) appointed VP by Ford [with consent of Senate]
So, easy-peasy, all due to the 25th Amendment that was put in place as a direct result of…the Kennedy assassination. This successful regime change took just over a year to execute, and ended with two un-elected people, one of them a Rockefeller, running the country. Nixon was the bagholder for both Vietnam, and the inflation, and was moved safely off stage, right along with Agnew.
So, if this is the intent, they need to:
- Run a “media-primary” to select the most acceptable Oligarchy stooge for office. That’s starting now.
- Torch Kamala – via DOJ?If they didn’t have something on her, she wouldn’t be in the slot. Cackles resigns.
- Gramps appoints his replacement – the “media-primary-winner” as VP.
- Grandpa resigns – ostensibly because of (maybe?) the Hunter Biden Laptop (there will be a month of hearings?), but maybe a few months before the resignation, the “bad vaccine information” will become public. Gramps will take the hit for the vaccine mandate disaster. The new VP-Oligarchy won’t have had anything to do with it. Just like Ford had no responsibility for either inflation, or Vietnam.
- The newly crowned President Oligarchy will pardon Grandpa – “the country needs to heal.” [but really: quid pro quo; it keeps Gramps from talking in retirement]
- President Oligarchy appoints a new Vice President, Oligarchy Junior. Bezos? Mini Mike? Another Rockefeller?
- As an (important) bonus, the Bad Orange Man also gets blamed for the vaccine disaster – right along with Grandpa – in the “vaccine” hearings. “We are shocked, shocked that the shots didn’t work, and caused so much damage. We blame BAD ORANGE MAN!And Grandpa too, of course, who was misled.” That’s a two-fer!
The only sticky issue is that the prospective new about-to-be-President Oligarchy would have to be approved by the Senate. That has to happen before the midterms. And it also might mean that candidate Oligarchy might just have to be a RINO Republican. Mitt Romney, perhaps? Horrible Hillary is clearly salivating at the possibility, but I just don’t see it happening.
Who gave me this nutty idea? The kernel of it came from Clif High. First 10 minutes of the video. Most of the details are mine.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/4t7bWnptaNOS/
Last thought. If this isn’t what is going on – who will take the blame for the vax disaster, the inflation, the economic problems, and the pandemic failure? And how else will they hang the shots on the Bad Orange Man? And how will they possibly survive the 2022 midterms without losing – I dunno – 60-80 seats? And why are they teasing Horrible Hillary for 2024? And – most importantly, who will get the blame for all that Pfizer data that will come out, inexorably, over the next 8 months?
So, my current thought: 25th Amendment/Regime Change. Next 8 months. Just like in 1973-1974. Because the situation is just that bad, just like it was in 1973, and they really need to blame it on someone, who they then can promptly usher off the stage. Call it: “Democracy 2.0.”
When I look around, I see hints of this everywhere.
The post More Inflation Signals, Plus Democracy 2.0. appeared first on Peak Prosperity.
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