Market Commentary
There were three major economic series released this week: Retail Sales [+0.71% m/m], Industrial Production [+0.40% m/m], and CPI [+0.27% m/m].
The CPI was just a bad joke; it is up +4.38% y/y, with PPIACO up +16.16%. Someone should complain to the the Trusted News Initiative gang that the harmful disinformation coming from the BLS will lead to serious damage to people’s investment portfolios. I mean, just imagine if someone made an actual investment decision based on this BLS disinformation?
Industrial Production has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and looks reasonably healthy, while Retail Sales are bloated, most likely due to inflation and all that cash paid to people for not-working. That gives me an idea – here’s Retail Sales [619B], deflated by the PPIACO Index [233]. Sure enough – looks like if you add up all that money-printed-funding of retail sales, and divide by the PPI inflation index, we’re effectively back to where we started pre-pandemic.
“But inflation is transitory!”
The dollar rallied strongly this week [+0.65%], with most of the move happening on Thursday and Friday. This caused some heartburn for the metals, which fell at roughly the same time. The buck is now back in an uptrend. What’s the deal? Maybe President Grandpa’s $3.5 trillion “Goodies For All the Donors – Paid For by You and Me” bill is in trouble?
So – can we correlate President Grandpa’s descending popularity with the dollar rally?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Not conclusive. The theory is, the “moderates” in the Senate may be eyeing their own political survival in 2022. Or maybe that’s just the old way of looking at things? Does the Oligarchy care about what happens to their captured stooges (on both sides of the aisle) regarding re-election? I wish I could get a clear reading on that. Certainly Liz Cheney is toast. As is everyone who voted to impeach Bad Orange Man. Does it matter? Or will the Oligarchy just corrupt/punish the new batch immediately following their arrival to Washington?
Pushed lower by the rallying dollar, gold fell [-34.81 -1.95%], with most of the damage happening on Thursday. There was no cash-register-ringing by the commercials this week, which suggests the move lower was “encouraged” by the banksters. During normal moves down, the banksters close their shorts – “ringing the cash register” on a profitable short trade. But not this week. The weekly candle print was fairly positive, but the trend is pointing lower in all the timeframes.
Silver fell even harder [-1.39 -5.85%], making a new 9-month low. Ouch. Silver’s OI ticked higher during this week’s plunge, which – as with gold – signals that the commercials are engaged in actively pushing prices lower, vs ringing the cash register on a successful short trade. That doesn’t make things any more fun if you are long silver, however. Like gold, silver is now in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes.
The miners were hit – but not all that badly, at least compared with silver – with most of the damage happening on Thursday. XAU fell -3.68%. This marked a new 14-month low for the mining shares. They are also in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes. That said – the decline on Friday was very minor – and Friday’s candle print might have marked a low: a highly rated spinning top (44% bullish reversal). When miners outperform silver, that’s generally a good sign, since they tend to be the highest risk component in the PM space. Call it a cautiously positive signal.
Copper also had an unpleasant week, falling -4.52% – a big move for copper, which is now in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes, just like silver, gold, and the miners. Even so, copper’s chart is stronger than the rest of the metals; it alone remains above its 200 MA. At least for now.
Crude did reasonably well, up +2.32 [+3.34%] to 71.81. Crude appears to be moving up to re-test the recent highs, set 10 weeks ago. Unlike all the other commodities, the master resource is in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. What does this mean? Downtrends in all the metals, and an uptrend in crude? I don’t know. But rising crude prices generally results in more inflation, since oil is used in just about everything we do in civilization. And crude is much closer to a high than a low. And the commercial shorts do NOT look like they are signaling a high right now – if anything, they are suggesting “probably higher prices ahead.”
And here’s US crude production – it took “a bit of a dip” because of that hurricane. That might account for at least some of the move higher in crude prices this week.
Well, we’re halfway through September, and the equity market may be starting to look a little bit iffy – it fell -0.57% this week, dropping below both the 9 and 50 MA lines. My code tells us that SPX is now in a daily-and-weekly downtrend. Of course, it has done this a number of times since the Fed started the presses running in April 2020, and literally nothing has come of any of these moves. But maybe this time will be different. Sector map: neutral.
Crappy debt [+0.22%] does not confirm the risk off move in equities, nor does the 10-year yield, which edged higher [+1.3 bp]. No panic here at all.
News That Caught My Eye
US military admits it killed 10 civilians and targeted wrong vehicle in Kabul airstrike
So about that “ISIS-K Planner” allegedly killed by a drone strike: turns out, seven innocent children are dead instead. This operation was critical for national security – something had to be done to show that President Grandpa was a real toughie, a real-life “Corn Pop” event, except instead of bragging about something that never happened, real children died in the attempt to show that Gramps is one tough dude. “We will hunt you down”, he said.
Greenwald’s take:
Anyone honest knows what happened: the Biden WH, facing rage over the attack at Kabul Airport that killed 13 Marines, was desperate to do *something* — anything — to make Biden look tough, so they wiped out a whole family to avoid a bad news cycle accusing him of weakness.
Two thoughts:
- Incompetence at CIA is one possibility. Another possibility: defense/industrial is still angry at losing their $50 billion/year gravy-train-endless-war, and this strike is just more payback for President Grandpa, so he doesn’t dare do anything like this ever again.
- A warning to the locals for the “domestic war on terror” they have queued up. What the CIA does to Afghan children today, they could well be doing to US children (“by accident – oopsie!”) next week, next month, or next year. Because, white supremacy, Or insurrectionists. Or anti-vaxxers. Or whatever.
Take a look at those poll numbers again: 49% disapproval. And this is fivethirtyeight, which is not exactly a conservative group. Grandpa’s handlers are starting to get desperate. They lose power in not-too-long if this continues. Theoretically.
U.S. Plans To Deport Massive Number Of Haitians From Del Rio, Texas, An Official Says
Well that’s a surprise. I thought we didn’t deport anyone anymore. After all, the Oligarchy desperately needs a whole new army of nannies and gardeners, to replace the now-overly-demanding US labor force.
And how did all those Haitian “refugees” make it to the Mexican border? Did they swim? Or maybe they took a plane flight. Entering at a US airport is just so tedious, especially for citizens like You and Me. There’s all the CBP questions, what countries did you visit, are you on a No Fly List, the dogs sniffing your luggage looking for food, the penalties for bringing in too many of whatever-things-happen-to-be-illegal today. All that fuss is avoided if you just walk across the bridge in Del Rio, Tx.
But – in a shocking new twist – allegedly CBP will be flying those Haitians back to Haiti by the planeload. “Remain in Haiti policy”, perhaps.
I’ll believe that when I see it. There’s a lot of Oligarchy-gardening that needs to be done, and not nearly enough Americans to do it all. Cheaply, I mean.
Former President Donald Trump celebrated the retirement of a Republican congressman who voted for his impeachment, as the GOP continues its purge of those who have pushed back against lies surrounding the 2020 election.
Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, R-Ohio, told the New York Times he would not be running for reelection in 2022, citing threats to his family and a tough primary race against a Trump White House aide challenging him who has the former president’s endorsement.
As the Bad Orange Man himself said, “1 down, 9 to go.” My guess: Bad Orange will be 10-for-10 once all is said and done.
How it started:
David Furnish says Elton John getting vaccinated was a ‘big load’ off his mind [Feb 19, 2021]
How it’s going:
Elton John in worsening pain cancels his fall tour [Sep 16, 2021]
The iconic musician said in a statement he “fell awkwardly on a hard surface” over the summer and has “been in considerable pain and discomfort” since then.
“Despite intensive physio and specialist treatment, the pain has continued to get worse and is leading to increasing difficulties moving,” the 74-year-old said in a statement posted on Instagram. “I have been advised to have an operation as soon as possible to get me back to full fitness and make sure there are no long-term complications.”
Elton John’s considerable pain and discomfort – not ameliorated by intensive specialist treatment, literally the best money can buy – was certainly NOT associated with his vaccine, which as we know is both safe and effective. As is the booster. And, most likely, as is the booster-booster, coming shortly to a vax-mandate area near you. No data on safety, but – antibodies! Just look at the antibody titers!
I hope Elton John recovers. I wish him the best.
Related: FDA, WTF! Why can’t I get my freaking booster??!
5 reasons why FDA advisers did not recommend Covid-19 booster shots for everyone
They think it’s too soon
“The stated goal of this vaccine has been to protect against serious illness. Data shows that these vaccines do exactly that”
They don’t see enough evidence to justify booster shots for everyone
“I share my colleagues’ angst about the sparsity of safety data”
They would like a lot more data and a chance to look for mistaken conclusions
“We are lacking data, including strong data on vaccine doses that have been given”
They are worried about younger adults and teens
“We really don’t have enough data yet to know what the risk of myocarditis or pericarditis would be following a booster dose.”
They think it’s more important to get more people to get vaccinated the first time around
“Boosters are probably not the action that is going to have the most health impact in the US”
Pfizer sure wanted boosters. Of course they did.
How is it that our captured-regulators said no? I have no idea. But they did. Maybe the example of the two resignations in the vaccine leadership at FDA provided them with a spine. Or maybe it was the 14,925 deaths (with the under-count rate of perhaps 100:1) in VAERS. Source
Related:
Pfizer recalls anti-smoking drug due to high levels of ingredient tied increased risk of cancer
Now that’s an interesting concept: product liability. Hey I have an idea. What if we applied this concept to the Pfizer experimental shot? I mean – why not, if the shots are “safe and effective.” What is there to lose? Pfizer can display their confidence in their own product by accepting liability for adverse events would do a lot to dispel all that unfortunate “vax hesitancy” we hear so much about.
I suspect that, post-COVID, this is what the vax-adverse-event-survivors will end up demanding, maybe 3 years from now.
Monoclonal Antibodies are Popular Treatments!
So it turns out, there actually are Treatments For You! Provided by HHS to Americans over the last week alone:
- Florida 27,850
- Texas 21,270
- Georgia 8,920
- Mississippi 8,550
- Louisiana 7,650
- Alabama 7,220
- North Carolina 5,850
- Kentucky 4,460
- South Carolina 4,010
- Total 158,580
How many hospitalizations and deaths were saved by early treatment? How many long-haul cases avoided? The clinical trial suggested that 70% of hospitalizations and deaths are avoided by early treatment. CFR in the high risk groups drop from 3% down to less than 1%. So maybe 3000 lives were saved – just this week alone! Hooray HHS!!
A friend of mine – in Del Rio, TX – used antibodies just last week. He reported “a magical effect” – symptom resolution immediately following the IV. He wasn’t all better, but he sure noticed the difference.
And the bad news: President Grandpa’s handlers have decided – No Antibody Treatments For Y’all!
Before the change, states and hospitals could purchase the antibodies on their own without going through the federal government.
“More than 50 percent of the monoclonal antibodies that had been used in Florida were going to be reduced,” DeSantis said on Thursday, adding that “there’s going to be a huge disruption, and patients are going to suffer as a result of this.”
And:
‘Some of Them Will Die’: Alabama Hit Hard by Monoclonal Antibody Rationing
The federal government’s sudden rationing of monoclonal antibody treatments, which keep Americans who get COVID-19 out of hospitals, is hitting Alabama hard, with some sites already running out of or projected to run out of supply soon.
“Our role as the government overseeing the entire country is to be equitable in how we distribute. We’re not going to give a greater percentage to Florida over Oklahoma,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Thursday.
“At this time we have not had any requests for it and it is quite costly,” a spokeswoman for the Michigan Department of Health told The Epoch Times via email.
One course of treatment costs $2,100, a GSK spokesperson told The Epoch Times. That’s the same price per dose in Regeneron’s latest two contracts with the federal government. Eli Lilly’s is about the same.
Yes. My goodness. Antibodies are very expensive treatments @ $2100/dose. [Whatever you do, don’t ask how much it costs per day of ICU care]. And of course, Remdesivir is $3000/dose. And it causes liver damage, and it saves no lives at all. But no rationing of Remdesivir. Of course. Probably because it doesn’t work.
One interesting observation. When talking to my vax-enthusiastic friends on facebook, I find them receptive when I talk about monoclonal antibodies.
That receptivity (antibodies are not Trumpster HCQ, and not “far right” Horse Dewormer) is probably why President Grandpa’s handlers are so angry at the DeSantis end-run around their NTFY campaign. “They are expensive!” they gasp. Clearly the problem with antibodies is – they actually do work. Vs Remdesivir, which doesn’t.
The latest sociopathic death-creating play by President Grandpa’s handlers will further decrease the trust in central authority. Lots of “independents” (and maybe some Democrats too) in the Southern states will have their eyes opened.
“No Treatments For Y’all.”
Tucker Carlson ended his Friday show with the following comment:
“Why is no-one talking about treatments for covid – which is real, and is killing an awful lot of people in this country. What do you do if you get it? Is there an effective therapeutic for covid, and why is nobody talking about that? We’re not sure of the answer, but we’ll spend much of next week looking much more deeply into that question, because we think its important.”
Source [@ 39:42]
Tucker: substantially behind the times, but – we can view this as a sign. If even Mainstream Tucker is now starting to see hints of the “No Treatments For You” story – 16 months late – we can treat this as a “waking-up waypoint.”
I’ll definitely be curious to see what Tucker comes up with next week. Not because I expect him to reveal anything I don’t know (as we know from Ivory Hecker, depending on the captured MSM to materially aid in saving your life during a pandemic is a colossally stupid idea), I want to see just how far truth and reality have penetrated into the thinking of Mainstream Tucker & his producers.
As well as just how much his captured bosses at Fox/Trusted News Initiative will permit him to say.
I’m guessing it will be about “monoclonal antibodies.” And maybe just a little bit more. But the $2100 monoclonals (an on-patent pharma product, of course) may be a Trojan Horse that ends up helping to sink the NTFY ship. To mix a metaphor. Certainly DeSantis has used it that way very effectively. And so has Dr McCullough. And come to think of it, I’ve done this too, in my own small way.
Both REGEN-COV 2400mg and 1200mg significantly reduced Covid-19-related hospitalization or all-cause death compared to placebo (71.3% reduction [1.3% vs 4.6%; p<0.0001] and 70.4% reduction [1.0% vs 3.2%; p=0.0024], respectively). The median time to resolution of Covid-19 symptoms was 4 days shorter in both dose arms vs placebo (10 vs 14 days; p<0.0001) …. Serious adverse events occurred more frequently in the placebo group (4.0%) than in the 1200mg (1.1%) and 2400mg (1.3%) groups and grade ≥2 infusion-related reactions were infrequent (<0.3% in all groups).
It sure looks like monoclonal antibodies work. Now just wait until the Blue states start using them. Friend-of-a-friend (in the SF Bay Area) used them following a breakthrough infection. An anecdote. But possibly the thin edge of the wedge. Half the country is taking Horse Paste, and the other half could soon be taking monoclonal antibodies.
An effective treatment will go a long way to defusing the fear & panic. Then what? If Grandma can get monoclonals, maybe the rest of us don’t need to “take that shot” to save her?
I think the potential for this dreadful outcome keeps both the BMGF and President Grandpa’s handlers up at night.
The post Dollar Rally Hurts PM, Monoclonal Antibodies for Everyone! appeared first on Peak Prosperity.
from Peak Prosperity https://ift.tt/3EpH3iC
