If you can understand inflation, you have a shot at understanding how the world works, and where it’s heading economically. Unfortunately, inflation is almost never taught properly in schools, if at all, and it’s mischaracterized in the press, over and over again. They all keep talking about inflation as “rising prices” when it’s actually “falling […]
Bold prediction: There’s a lot more inflation on the way. Actually, it’s not that bold, because inflation is a monetary phenomenon, and that makes it a matter of policy, which is under the direct control of people, and people are people. So they will do the same things today (and tomorrow) that were done elsewhere […]
Consumer Sentiment: 59.2, expected 58.0, previous 57.7; contractionary. Q1 GDP (2nd estimate): +0.3% q/q (+1.3% annualized), up from +0.275% (1st estimate); contractionary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.1% m/m, expected -1.1% m/m, prior +3.2%; expansionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) -20B w/w; deflationary. This week both the 1 and 10-year rates moved higher, while the 1-month […]
You can feel ‘something’ coming, can’t you? I sure can, as do many others as the population wakes up to the true nature of our poly-crises. Things are breaking quickly on a lot of different fronts all at the same time. It’s almost as if we’re surrounded by exponential functions each driving off of the […]
If you don’t understand what the US Federal Reserve is, How it operates, or who owns it, you’re flying blind. The Fed is the most powerful entity in the world. Far more powerful than the Department of Defense, far more powerful than the CIA, and far more powerful than all of the politicians put together. […]
Evie and I have decided to commit to another Livecast today. Check out the Peak Prosperity Channel on Youtube to tune in. I’ll post a direct link here as soon as we have one. Today’s topics may include: Drug shortages (which are still bad) and what that might portend for millions if that condition worsens […]
There were 3 reports and a balance sheet this week: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.48% m/m, +0.24% y/y. Short term: recovery. Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.42% m/m, +1.57% y/y. Short term: recovery. Housing Starts (HOUST): +2.14% m/m, -29% y/y. Single Family house construction has been crushed (HOUST1F), down 39% y/y, while Multifamily 5+ (HOUST5F) fell just 13%. […]
Understanding the characteristics of money, its role as our social glue and trust-at-a-distance, and especially where it comes from are absolutely vital things to know. Which is probably why they are almost never taught anywhere within the educational system nor in our mainstream press. Most importantly, everybody should be tracking how much money is being […]
Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y. Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y. Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y. Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months. Check out […]
The Crash Course remains a solid work of framing. One of the best of my life (so far). Because so few people have taken it lately, beginning with today’s ‘Chapter” I am redoing the entire Crash Course, piece by piece, as my weekly public videos from now until it’s done. I think everybody should see […]
Today at 3:00 PM EST we are going live on Youtube. Look forward to seeing you in the livechat! 🙂
Two reports and a balance sheet: Payrolls: headline +253k, expected +178k; avg hourly earnings +0.5%, expected +0.3%. Expansionary. PMI Manufacturing: 50.2, expected 50.4; weak – contractionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -58.7B w/w, previous -30.5B. Deflationary. The Fed raised rates at this week’s meeting by 25 bp to 5.08%. Is Powell going to raise rates again? CME […]
The cost of insuring against a US debt default is insane and everybody should be paying close attention to what that’s telling us. The unthinkable is now thinkable. While I personally consider a US debt default to be improbable – they always swerve close to the edge then veer away – it’s now a non-zero […]
First Republic Bank failed on 5/1/23 and JP Morgan was selected (of course) by the US government for a sweetheart, can’t lose, make JPM billions deal. Of course. If it weren’t for overt corruption, the US government wouldn’t stand for anything at all. Naturally, this is all wrapped up in the usual weak cover stories […]
